Projected Effort guide for effort management tools
Date last modified: 4/2/24
How is the Projected Effort Calculated in the Effort Management Tools?
Projected Effort is calculated as a weighted average. When we calculate the weighted average for Projected Effort, we're figuring out how much time is spent on a project over a commitment period, like a year. Imagine you have different amounts of effort allocated each month, and we want to find out how much effort you will contribute on average each year.
Here's how we do it:
1. Find the weighted person months per year: This means we look at how much effort is allocated each month, considering how much of the month is included. For example, if a month starts halfway through, we count that as half a month. We do this for each month, then add up all the effort allocated over the year
2. Find the total weighted count of months: This means we add up all the months, considering how much of each month is included. For example, if a month starts halfway through, we count that as half a month.
3. Divide the total weighted person months per year by the total weighted count of months: This gives us the projected average effort over the year.
For example:
- If we have a commitment period from June 1, 2023, to May 31, 2024, we count all of the months in the commitment period as full months, because all months span the entire months. We then sum the effort allocation by the total count of months.
- If we have a commitment period from June 16, 2023, to June 15, 2024, we count the first and last months as half months (number of days in the month for the period / total number of days for the month). We do this for all months, then add up the effort allocated over the year.
- In both cases, we then find out how much effort is projected to be allocated by the end of the commitment year by dividing the total effort allocated over the year by the total number of months in the commitment period, and applying the current effort allocation to the future months.
When there are partial periods:
- If a commitment starts partway through a month, we adjust the weight of that month. For instance, if a month starts halfway through, the weight for that month is one half of a month and the rate of person months is multiplied by that weight (0.5 months) to give the weighted person months.
- When one commitment ends partway through a month and another starts, we split the amount of effort done for that month between the two commitments, considering how much of the month each commitment covers.
Let’s look at an example:
Here's how the calculations would look if a project started June 16th, 2023, and ends June 15th, 2024, and you are viewing the Projected Effort in April 2024 after the March payroll has closed:
- June 2023: Partial month, starts on June 16, weight = 0.5
- July 2023 to May 2024: Full months, weight = 1 each
- June 2024: Partial month, ends on June 15, weight = 0.5
Here's the breakdown:
| Month | Rate of Person Months (Allocated effort) | Weight | Weighted Person Months (Rate * Weight) | Weighted Count of Months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 2023 | 3 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| July 2023 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| August 2023 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| September 2023 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| October 2023 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| November 2023 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| December 2023 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| January 2024 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| February 2024 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| March 2024 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| April 2024 (Future) | 6 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| May 2024 (Future) | 6 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| June 2024 (Future) | 6 | 0.5 | 3 | 0.5 |
| TOTALS | 12 | 55.5 | 12 |
Total for Calculation:
- Total Weighted Person Months Per Year: 55.5
- Total Weighted Count of Months: 12
Projected Average Effort:
- Total Weighted Person Months Per Year / Total Weighted Count of Months
- 55.5 / 12 ≈ 4.63
Therefore, the projected average effort for the time span from June 16, 2023, to June 15, 2024, is approximately 4.63 person months per year.